The intensity of the Asian monsoon is now known a year in advance
Yokohama, Japan: Monsoon rains are intensifying in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh every year. Now, thanks to a new model, the intensity of the Asian monsoon, especially a year ago, can be accurately predicted.
This model can also reliably predict the Asian summer monsoon and possible cyclones, and can predict it up to 12 months in advance. In the meantime, the people and governments will have ample time to prepare for the catastrophic seasons.
Yohai Takaya of the Japan Meteorological Agency and his colleagues have developed a brand new climate forecasting model that includes historical and up-to-date meteorological data, related data as well as temperature changes in the oceans and Includes reports of other atmospheric fluctuations. The most important aspect of this is that this model can tell when and how El Nano Southern oscillation will occur and of what intensity?
“In the El Nino process, the Indian Ocean stays warm from autumn to winter and will remain so until next summer,” Yohai said.
Thus the heat of the Indian Ocean has an extraordinary effect on the monsoon of Asia. This model also includes sea and meteorological data collected between 1980 and 2016. After adding a year’s worth of data, the model predicts how the monsoon season will go next year. It is also possible to predict conditions such as model sea temperature, regional rainfall and the Western North Pacific Monsoon.
If the value of the actual monsoon predicted in the climate model is one, it will be the most accurate prediction. From this model, when the temperature of Southeast Asia was predicted, its score was 0.75. On the other hand, even the latest meteorological models can predict only six months, but this model can predict the weather a year in advance.